Global eSIM Market Size and User Growth Trends: 2026, 2027 and 2028 Forecast
Projected E-sim Market Size by Number of Users (2026-2028)
Projected E-sim Market Size by Number of Users (2026-2028)
Switch To Line Chart
Source: AlternativeMarketData (Please include a link to our website for reference.) Publication Date: November 2024 Region: Worldwide Survey time period: November 2024
The methodology for determining the eSIM market size based on the number of users takes into account multiple key factors, including mobile phone internet adoption rates, population size, and the usage of eSIM technology as reported by first-party data sources. By combining these variables, we can estimate the scale and growth trajectory of the eSIM market across the globe, particularly in the most populous countries.
Analysis of eSIM Market Growth Projections (2026–2028)
The eSIM market is expected to witness robust growth in the coming years, as evidenced by the projected user adoption data from AlternativeMarketData. The dataset highlights year-on-year increases in millions of users for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, indicating a rapid expansion across various regions.
The projected growth of the E-sim market from 2026 to 2028 reflects strong expansion, particularly in major global markets like the USA, India, China, Japan, and several European nations. Here’s an analysis based on the available data:
Market Growth Overview (User Adoption)
The number of E-sim users is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, reflecting the widespread adoption of this technology across various regions. Here are some key insights:
USA
2026: 250.63 million users
2027: 273.42 million users
2028: 296.20 million users The USA will continue to dominate the E-sim market, reflecting the country’s large mobile user base and the adoption of E-sim technology in consumer and business applications. As 5G networks continue to expand, the need for seamless switching between mobile networks will drive further adoption.
India
2026: 149.74 million users
2027: 163.36 million users
2028: 176.97 million users India’s growth is significant due to its massive mobile population and a rapidly growing mobile internet user base. As E-sim technology eliminates the need for physical SIM cards, adoption is expected to accelerate, especially among younger and tech-savvy users.
China
2026: 68.41 million users
2027: 74.63 million users
2028: 80.84 million users Despite regulatory hurdles, China‘s market will see steady growth in E-sim adoption, especially with the growing number of connected devices and the ongoing rollout of 5G infrastructure. However, China’s market is often more controlled and fragmented, which could limit faster growth compared to other nations.
Japan
2026: 46.36 million users
2027: 50.58 million users
2028: 54.79 million users Japan’s mobile technology adoption is already high, but E-sim usage is expected to rise as consumers demand greater flexibility and ease of network switching. The Japanese market is likely to see gradual but steady adoption due to the existing advanced infrastructure.
Germany
2026: 23.95 million users
2027: 26.13 million users
2028: 28.31 million users In Germany, E-sim adoption is projected to grow steadily, driven by strong telecommunications networks and the increasing demand for IoT devices. Germany is one of the leaders in Europe when it comes to technological infrastructure, which supports E-sim growth.
Emerging Markets
Brazil and Mexico are projected to see significant increases in E-sim adoption as mobile internet penetration grows, particularly in emerging urban areas.
Brazil: 22.10 million (2026) → 26.11 million (2028)
Mexico: 27.52 million (2026) → 32.53 million (2028)
Russia, South Africa, and Nigeria are expected to experience moderate growth, benefiting from mobile-first markets and the rollout of next-generation telecommunications infrastructure.
Notable Markets in Asia
Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia will continue to see increases in user numbers due to rising mobile phone penetration and a growing interest in flexible mobile services.
Thailand: 13.44 million (2026) → 15.88 million (2028)
Indonesia: 12.05 million (2026) → 14.250 million (2028)
Implications for Stakeholders:
Telecommunications Providers: Must enhance eSIM support in devices and streamline activation processes to capitalize on growth.
Device Manufacturers: Opportunity to integrate eSIM technology into budget-friendly devices to cater to emerging markets.
Investors: The eSIM market represents a high-growth segment with potential for sustainable returns.
The rapid adoption of eSIM technology underscores its importance as a cornerstone for next-generation connectivity in a globalized, data-driven world.
Conclusion
The E-sim market will continue to expand at a fast pace through 2028, with significant growth in regions like India and the USA. As mobile carriers and device manufacturers adopt E-sim technology, markets with large mobile user bases, such as India, Brazil, and Mexico, are expected to become major growth drivers. Conversely, regions with complex regulatory environments, such as China and Russia, might experience slower but steady adoption.
This projected growth aligns with the global trend towards digital transformation, as industries and consumers shift towards more flexible and sustainable telecom solutions. The forecast also emphasizes the importance of expanding infrastructure and improving regulatory conditions to support market penetration.
The data clearly shows that the E-sim market will be a critical component of the telecommunications landscape in the coming years, especially in fast-growing mobile economies.
