S&P 500 COT Report: Positions by Trader Category as of December 10, 2024
Source: CFTC Financial Future Report
Publication Date: Commitment of Traders (COT) report is typically updated weekly. It is released every Friday by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with data reflecting positions held by traders as of the previous Tuesday.
Region: Worldwide
Survey time period: 10th December 2024
Disclaimer: This is for educational purpose and is not a financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Analysis of Weekly Changes in Position and Market Sentiment
We’ll focus on the weekly changes in positions of the non-dealer categories to infer market sentiment. Dealers are ignored as they typically maintain short positions for hedging purposes.
1. Asset Manager/Institutional
- Weekly Change (Long): -9,045
- Weekly Change (Short): -1,833
Analysis:
Asset managers slightly reduced both long and short positions, with a more significant reduction in long positions. This suggests a potential neutral to bearish sentiment, as they are taking profits or de-risking.
2. Leveraged Funds
- Weekly Change (Long): +26,293
- Weekly Change (Short): -35,691
Analysis:
Leveraged funds significantly increased their long positions while reducing short positions. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment, as they are positioning for upside momentum in the market.
3. Other Reportables
- Weekly Change (Long): -6,196
- Weekly Change (Short): +28,678
Analysis:
Other reportables reduced their long positions and increased short positions. This reflects a bearish sentiment, as they anticipate downside risk or hedge against potential market declines.
4. Nonreportable
- Weekly Change (Long): +4,288
- Weekly Change (Short): +2,363
Analysis:
Nonreportable traders increased both long and short positions, with a slightly greater increase in longs. This suggests a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, possibly reflecting indecision or a cautious approach to upside potential.
Market Sentiment Summary
- Bullish Sentiment: Dominated by Leveraged Funds, which increased long positions significantly while cutting shorts.
- Bearish Sentiment: Reflected by Other Reportables, with a notable increase in shorts and reduction in longs.
- Neutral to Bearish: Seen in Asset Managers, who reduced both longs and shorts but cut longs more aggressively.
- Neutral to Slightly Bullish: Nonreportables, with a minor increase in both longs and shorts.
Overall Market Sentiment
The weekly changes suggest divergence in market views, with Leveraged Funds positioning strongly for upside while Other Reportables hedge for downside. This could indicate increased market volatility and uncertainty in the near term.
